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Market Caution as Nifty Dips Below Key Levels

By Mandar in Indian Market Insights —

Market Summary: September 15

Indian markets closed slightly lower on September 15, reflecting a marginally cautious market sentiment despite sectoral divergence.

  • Nifty 50: Closed at 25,069.20, falling below 25,100.
  • Sensex: Down by 119 points, closing at 81,785.74.
  • Market Capitalisation: Rs 18,860.23 crore.
  • Market Breadth: Mixed, with 2,052 shares advancing and 1,756 declining.
  • Rupee: Ended stronger at 88.21 per dollar compared to last Friday's 88.27.

Sectoral Performance

The market showed a sectoral divergence, indicating selective buying and sector rotation.

  • Sectors Under Pressure: Consumer Durables, IT, Pharmaceuticals, and Autos (declining 0.3-0.6%).
  • Sectors Gaining: Capital Goods, Realty, Power, and Telecom (gains between 0.5% and 2.5%).

Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank Nifty demonstrated relative strength.

  • Crossed 55,000 intraday for the first time since August 25, settling at 54,960.
  • Key Banking Stocks: Canara Bank and Federal Bank advanced around 0.8%.
  • Support Level: 54,400 is a strong support.
  • Potential Target: 56,000 if it closes above 55,150.
  • Technical Indicators: Support a bullish outlook.

Nifty Technical Analysis

  • Resistance Levels: 25,145 and 25,246.
  • Support Levels: 24,900 and 24,760.

A decisive breakout above resistance could lead to fresh all-time highs, while failing to hold supports may invite selling pressure.

Key Market Drivers

Several factors are influencing market sentiment.

  • U.S. Federal Reserve: Expectation of easing, keeping investors cautious but optimistic.
  • India-U.S. Trade Negotiations: Progress adds a positive undertone.
  • Sector Insights: Defense stocks gaining due to robust order pipelines, and alcobev stocks are in focus.

Key Actions for Market Participants

  • Nifty: Monitor for a breakout above 25,145, with a buy trigger targeting 25,246 and above.
  • Bank Nifty: Traders should look for a sustained close above 55,150 to target 56,000-56,156 levels.
  • Watch for support tests at Nifty 24,900 and Bank Nifty 54,400; breaches could signal short-term weakness.
  • Consider sector rotation favoring capital goods, realty, power, and telecom amid weakness in Consumer Durables and IT.
  • Keep an eye on developments in US Fed policy and India-U.S. trade talks for broader market sentiment cues.

Overall Market Outlook

The market reflects cautious optimism with pockets of strength, guided by technical levels and macro developments.