Indian Markets Steady Ahead of RBI Policy Announcement

Indian Stock Market Overview

Indian stock markets concluded yesterday with a near-flat performance, influenced by cautious investor sentiment preceding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) bi-monthly policy decision.

• The Sensex closed down by 97 points, settling at 80,267.
• The Nifty decreased by 24 points, closing at 24,611, reflecting volatile trading.

RBI Policy Decision Anticipation

The primary focus of investors is the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the RBI.

• The repo rate is widely anticipated to remain stable at 5.50 percent.
• A neutral stance is expected to be sustained.
• Recent developments like GST rate reduction and strong domestic economic growth in Q1FY26 (7.8% real GDP) support this outlook.
• Concerns around rising US tariffs and global trade uncertainties are also influencing market expectations.

Sectoral Performance and Technical Analysis

Certain sectors demonstrated encouraging signs, while technical indicators signaled caution.

• Steel and manufacturing sectors are showing resilience.
  • Steel Authority of India (SAIL) displayed a bullish technical setup.
  • Britannia Industries experienced a strong rebound.
• Market breadth was weak, with more declining stocks than advancing ones.
• Nifty 50 technicals suggest bearish trends.
  • Key support levels are at 24,550, potentially leading to 24,300 if breached.
  • Resistance levels are between 24,700 and 24,850.

Global Market Context

Global market performance presents a mixed picture, influencing the Indian market outlook.

• US markets closed higher.
• Asian markets showed mixed signals.
• Concerns over a potential US government shutdown are contributing to a cautious atmosphere.

Market Outlook

The Indian markets are anticipated to open slightly higher, but with cautious trading ahead of the RBI's policy announcement. Global economic conditions will play a key role in the market's trajectory.